The election showdowns - continuity or change?

Preview

Key year, key elections. The EurParl elections will take place on May 26 - they will constitute a general rehearsal before the parliamentary campaign and autumn elections to the Sejm, which will decide on the change or continuation at the level of legislative and executive power. Poles will also decide whether the political changes introduced by PiS will be consolidated and deepened in the coming years, impacting the state of civil society, the situation of the media and the position of Poland in the EU. The future of the party scene is also obviously at stake of the election. An outline of the political situation and medium-term scenarios for Poland will be presented by the founder of Polityka Insight, Wawrzyniec Smoczyński.

How will things look at the start of the Sejm election? The political scene is expected to undergo a correction in 2019, and several issues will be settled before the autumn elections to the Sejm. Our interlocutors will try to decide whether PO will absorb SLD and PSL, or maybe these parties will try their hand once again. Will Wiosna, which successfully debuted in the polls, manage to remain popular. And finally – what will be the fate of the so-called non-parliamentary right? What will emerge from the tangle of Kukiz '15, the Independents Local Government movement, Robert Gwiazdowski’s “Fair Play” and Piotr Liroy-Marc’s “Skuteczni” initiatives? The United Right probably faces the fewest changes before the election, its existence is protected by the fact that it holds power and retains high support.

Does politics need a generational revolution? When the current parliamentary term began, the average age of MPs was 49 and today it is over 52, with women outnumbered almost three to one by the men. Ministers usually represent the 50+ or even 60+ generation. The cohort born in the second half of the 1970s and in the 1980s has achieved almost nothing in politics. Why are there so few thirty-year-olds in PiS and PO? We will ask if age matters in politics and whether it can be an activity for young people. Perhaps young leaders will help the new parties to attract the undecided and uninvolved voters.

Will turnout record be broken? Nearly 55 per cent of those entitled to vote turned out for the local government elections, the highest figure in the history of local elections and more than in the previous parliamentary elections in Poland (except for the vote in 1989). Turnout will be the key to political analysis in 2019, both during the European elections and the parliamentary campaign. High levels of polling, especially in cities, will favour PO and Wiosna but may hurt PiS and bury the PSL and SLD, which are stuck in electoral niches and have little chance of enlarging their electorate. Anomalies in turnout can also significantly change party preferences in the European elections. Usually, 25 per cent of Poles vote in European elections: experts now expect turnout as high as 40 per cent.

Will PiS win again? This is the most important question in 2019. Opinion polls are moderately advantageous for PiS- the ruling party still has a clear lead, but the likelihood of it winning an independent majority is diminishing. Fortunately for Jarosław Kaczyński, it is Andrzej Duda who will pick a prime minister after the election, who will then have time to form a majority. PiS may enter into a formal coalition with Kukiz '15 (or some post-Kukiz formation) or - if it is only a few votes short of a majority - will try to attract several opposition MPs to their side. Those who eventually form the government will determine the subsequent changes on the political scene - neither PiS nor PO will be able to survive four years in the opposition in an unchanged form.

Panellists

MinTech Jadwiga Emilewicz represents the younger generation in Mateusz Morawiecki’s government, as well as Jaroslaw Gowin’s “Porozumienie”, which gives her some degree of autonomy within the governing camp. Gowin hopes that in the next reshuffle Emilewicz will get a more important ministry. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is the head of PSL, whose personal ratings stand much higher than his party’s, which is why he is sometimes referred to as the opposition candidate for prime minister. Kacper Płażyński is the recent PiS candidate for the mayor of Gdańsk, who will soon move into national politics. Rafał Trzaskowski (PO) defeated Patryk Jaki in the first round Warsaw mayoral election, which gave PO politicians and voters hope that the party can still run victorious campaigns.