Takeaway
Europe is looking at Poland and the autumn elections. The participants of the panel entitled "What the Polish elections mean for Europe", which was moderated by Polityka Insight's managing director Andrzej Bobiński, included: Die Zeit's foreign affairs editor Jörg Lau, head of the Brussels office of the Centre for European Reform Camino Mortera-Martinez and head of Kultura Liberalna's political desk Tomasz Sawczuk. In their opinion, Poland plays a key role due to its support for Ukraine and in other ways, but steps such as the establishment of a commission to investigate Russian influence in Poland are preventing Warsaw from increasing its influence in the EU. The framework for the panel's discussion consisted of three scenarios outlined by Sawczuk with regard to the autumn elections: PiS staying in power, a lack of majority for either side and an opposition victory.
The EU would welcome a change of government in Poland with relief. PiS's actions are often misunderstood in Europe which sees them as non-constructive. Mortera-Martinez said that the Polish government is in conflict "not only with Germany, but also with France and other capitals". Another problem is the closeness between PiS and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has pariah status in the EU. Lau pointed out that Poland is Germany's most important strategic partner in Europe, but cooperation with a government using anti-German rhetoric is difficult. He acknowledged that the takeover of power in Poland by pro-European forces would not solve all problems (the energy transition, for instance, would remain contentious), but would be a great relief for the EU and capitals. Sawczuk said that he did not see a coherent vision for Europe within the opposition, but that their taking power would mean a rapid restoration of cooperation within the EU.
Post-election chaos is possible. Sawczuk put the probability of neither PiS nor the opposition (KO, Third Way, Left) having a majority after the elections or the election result being contested by one of the parties at 40 per cent. If the election results are accepted, the decisive role in the formation of the government may fall to Konfederacja, which may, however, decide not to join a coalition with PiS and seek early elections or support a minority government to push through its laws. The latter two scenarios would mean a government pursuing a harsher anti-EU line than the current one. Lau and Mortera-Martinez agreed that this would be a problem for Berlin and other European capitals.
There are fears of deepening euroscepticism, but not of Polexit. The panellists fear an even more EU-averse government in Poland, but none of them thought a Polexit scenario a realistic one. In their view, Poles are too euro-enthusiastic for that, while the international situation and the negative experience of Brexit are not conducive to leaving the EU. Warsaw will need to become involved in future discussions on EU reform. Bobiński outlined a scenario in which even a possible future pro-European government would threaten a return of a eurosceptic government to obtain concessions within the EU. Sawczuk agreed, but pointed out - as did Mortera-Martinez - that the EU has adapted to instability and has learnt to act when different countries break out of a common front.
Věra Jourová is concerned about "lex Tusk". During the last event at the Warsaw European Conversation "How the EU intends to defend democracy", EurCom's Vice-President spoke to Polityka Insight's Deputy Managing Director, Joanna Bekker. Jourová briefly commented on the law establishing the commission to investigate Russian influence in Poland, signed by President Andrzej Duda on May 29. She said that work is underway to analyse the law and its implications for democracy and elections in Poland. Jourová added that after a preliminary analysis, the law raises concerns, but for now she would not prejudge whether EurCom would take action in relation to it. 
* The Warsaw European Conversation conference was organised by Polityka Insight and the European Council on Foreign Relations. The event's partners were Orange, Deloitte, European Climate Foundation, McDonald's, Nexity, Polski Związek Firm Deweloperskich, Veolia, Visa and Żabka Group.
