About the Report:
The report analyses the process of Poland’s structural shift towards the north, focusing primarily on three aspects: the economy, energy, and national and regional security. The first part presents the historical and geographical context, as well as the current state of the economic, demographic and infrastructural potential of the northern regions. The second part focuses on the key strengths of Pomorskie and Zachodniopomorskie Voivodships, discussing the energy transition, the growing role of the Baltic Sea in NATO’s security architecture, and the development of ports, logistics and the high-tech sector. The third part analyses the image-related dimension of these changes. The fourth part identifies the main opportunities and challenges for development and formulates recommendations for state policy.
Key Findings:
- Poland is turning towards the Baltic Sea. The historic east-west axis, which for centuries has defined Poland’s political, security, and economic landscape, is now being complemented by an increasingly important north-south. These changes are being driven by strategic investments in nuclear power, offshore energy, ports, gas, the power grid, and defence.
- At the same time the Baltic Sea has become ‘NATO’s lake’. Following Finland and Sweden’s accession to the Alliance, all states on the Baltic shores, Russia excluded, are now members of NATO. At the same time, Russia’s growing hostility towards its western neighbours is giving rise to security threats, including in the hybrid domain, in what is formally peacetime. Economic development in the Baltic region must take into account the growing need to defend critical infrastructure.
- New ventures are reshaping the economic landscape of Pomerania. In recent years, a number of projects have been completed on the coast, including ports, roads, and railways, which not only bolster the region’s strengths but also help accelerate its infrastructural development and close the gap with the country’s most developed areas. The significance of these new strategic investments extends beyond energy and security, as they require the strengthening of local public services and the housing market; they create demand for new jobs and a new market for services.
- The success of the Baltic turn hinges on the power grid. The planned 3.75 GW nuclear power plant is set to generate around 30–32 TWh of electricity per year, which represents a significant share of the current national consumption. Offshore wind farms are expected to reach a capacity of around 18 GW by 2040. Without adequate upgrades to the country’s power transmission and distribution infrastructure, the region’s potential – including in the areas of industry and data centres – will not be fully harnessed.
- A shift north is an opportunity for Poland to strengthen its international standing. Poland is one of the region’s most important countries in demographic, economic, and military terms, and can increasingly act as a security provider, rather than just a consumer. Increased cooperation within the Baltic Sea region’s frameworks can complement interest in collaboration within the Weimar Triangle, the Visegrád Group, or the Bucharest Nine. Success in the efforts requires partnership-based leadership.
The report is also available in the Polish version.