Trump, Korea and globalisation at Risks and Trends 2018

Key Points

Risks and Trends for the third time. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was a special guest of the event. During a one-day meeting, outstanding experts from Europe and the US talked about the opportunities and risks that the new year is bringing. Global topics constituted the first part of the conference, the event was then divided into three paths: finance, energy and technology. Key partners of Risks and Trends 2018 were HSBC and Play, and the supporting partners were Baker McKenzie, the Boston Consulting Group, Facebook, Grupa Żywiec, Hill+Knowlton Strategies, Jeronimo Martins Polska, the Polish Development Fund (PFR), Northrop Grumman and Visa.

Fried: right wing in Poland has its reasons, but fails to convey them. Poles have the right to feel proud of the role they played during the war; they did not negotiate with Hitler and resisted him, said Daniel Fried, former US ambassador to Poland and representative of the Atlantic Council. The underground state was supporting Jewish citizens. For this reason, Poles have the right to feel insulted by the term "Polish death camps" and to fight it. The amendment to the law on the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), however, does not serve this purpose and is an example of the fact that the Polish right has its reasons, but is unable to convey them. Poland also has its reasons in the dispute with Brussels, but quarrelling with EU institutions is not the right way to promote its vision.

Gray: there will be no impeachment of Trump this year. The investigation into Russian intervention in the US presidential election has already incriminated four persons from Donald Trump's circles, but the allegations of money laundering may be more dangerous for POTUS, said Gordon Gray, director of the Centre for American Progress. However, it would be difficult to remove Trump from his post - the opening procedure requires a simple majority in the House of Representatives and the impeachment requires a majority of two-thirds in the Senate. Even if the Democrats, after the mid-term election, regain the majority in the House of Representatives, Trump's opponents in the Senate will still be short of votes.

Tocci: Multi-speed EU is the only way to survive. A positive trend in the EU is visible: the pro-European movements are becoming more active, and the support for reforms is growing - said Nathalie Tocci, head of the Roman International Affairs Institute and chief advisor to the head of EU diplomacy Federica Mogherini. The lack of government in Berlin is delaying this process, but it will eventually take place. For the West, Warsaw’s policy which excludes itself from the debate on the future of the EU, is frustrating. Some capitals want to move further and they should be allowed to do so. As far as the EU sanctions are concerned, Poland will most probably not be punished - other capitals are afraid that they themselves might fall victim to this procedure in the future.

Valášek: Russians are tired of foreign policy. In spite of having unwavering support, Putin is trying to respond to public sentiments that indicate growing fatigue with Moscow's confrontational foreign policy - said the director of Carnegie Europe, Tomáš Valášek. The Russians are becoming increasingly more interested in the internal situation, economy and standards of living. Putin is trying to respond to these moods, but finds himself in a difficult situation – improvement in the quality of life in Russia could only be brought about through inconvenient reforms. Wanting to divert the Russians’ attention, he may again bet on confrontation with the rest of the world.

Varriale: US must have a clear goal in North Korea. Trump responds to North Korea’s aggressive policy with threats of a military attack. The question is what goal he will set for himself - said the analyst of the British Royal United Services Institute, Cristina Varriale. The elimination of all infrastructure for the production of nuclear weapons would require terrestrial intervention. In turn, by planning an attack to force North Korea to negotiate, the Americans would have to assess the risk - the US military in South Korea and Japan would be the first target of the counterattack. China plays a key role in the conflict - Beijing's constructive attitude in the UN Security Council is Trump's success.

King: globalisation no longer works in favour of the West. The overthrow of communism awoke hopes, which have not been fulfilled - adviser at HSBC, Stephen King, believes. It was then assumed that liberal democracy and the free market were the desired model of development and the authoritarian regimes would disappear. That did not happen - the West plunged into a financial crisis and the young generation expects a worse standard of living than their parents'. Simultaneously, authoritarian China has made a leap forward in civilisation which has improved the quality of life of masses of people. As a result, the West is beginning to question the positive effects of globalisation, and protectionism has become Washington's and London’s official policy.