Takeaway
Zachmann: the next winters will be lighter in terms of energy challenges. During the debate “How to change the climate and energy policy in the face of war”, which was part of the Risks and Trends conference, Georg Zachmann from the Bruegel think tank in Brussels said that this was a possible scenario, provided that: there is an overhaul of the energy system, investment in LNG infrastructure, industrial change and the development of energy efficiency. "We need to adapt to the new reality and encourage investment, without drowning out price signals. Otherwise, we will fall into a vicious circle where a low number of investments translates into high spending on support for energy consumers," said Zachmann. Discussing the concept of a gas price cap, he explained that such a solution must be accompanied by EU gas flow agreements. Otherwise, countries that do not import gas directly may prove to be unattractive to suppliers and experience supply disruptions.
Emilewicz: the market has failed; we need more state intervention in a crisis. MP and former MinDev Jadwiga Emilewicz pointed out that the liberal approach to energy in Western European countries meant that Russian capital could easily take over critical infrastructure, including gas storage facilities. She emphasised, however, that there must be a balance between interventionism and the free market, and that the mix of private capital and government actions would be a hallmark of the times ahead. According to the former Deputy Prime Minister, as a result of the energy crisis in Poland, public acceptance of the construction of a nuclear power plant has increased significantly. "This investment must be made and today is the best social moment for it," said Emilewicz, emphasising that nuclear energy is currently the only clean and simultaneously stable source of energy.
Zachmann/Emilewicz: Germany is facing the challenge of transforming its energy policy. Both Zachmann and Emilewicz referred to Germany's controversial energy crisis programme, the value of which is expected to reach around EUR 200 billion, which, according to Bruegel’s data, exceeds the total costs of fighting the energy crisis incurred by Great Britain and France. Zachmann emphasised that a reduction in consumption was necessary to survive the crisis, and that the German subsidy system may weaken the end-users' determination to economise. Emilewicz, in turn, recalled that the policy of rapid decarbonisation with the simultaneous acceptance of gas as a transit went bankrupt. She also emphasised the need for Europe to conduct a better coordinated energy policy in order to avoid the risks related to the fragmentation of the EU market.
Dubakina: big companies see an opportunity in green investments. All panellists emphasised the role of investment in RES and energy efficiency in the fight against the energy crisis. Marina Dubakina, CEO at IKEA Polska, pointed out that the production of energy from renewable sources by the Polish branch of the Swedish furniture company has already exceeded its consumption, and in the longer-term IKEA wants to strive for full energy independence. The company will undertake even more ambitious investment targets if Polish law creates better conditions for this, including liberalising the windmill law (the so-called 10H law). Dubakina noted, however, that investments in reducing the energy intensity of doing business are only available to large companies; the small ones have an uphill battle.
Rudzińska-Bluszcz: the role of the courts in creating climate policy is growing. Zuzanna Rudzińska-Bluszcz, CEO of Client Earth in Poland, pointed out that the energy crisis has become the number one topic in the media, pushing the energy transition agenda into the background. She pointed out that high energy prices generate social discontent, which politicians will manage in the upcoming election campaign, wrongly blaming the EU’s climate policy. She also reminded of the ongoing legal disputes in Poland and worldwide between citizens and the state over the failure to implement the adopted climate goals by the governments of individual countries. "Since public authorities are unable to adjust their energy policies to the need for constitutional protection of health and life, citizens have the right to go to court," she said. 
Robert Tomaszewski contributed to this analysis.
The partners of the Risks and Trends 2022 conference include Amazon, Deloitte, Grupa Żywiec, IKEA, Janssen, KGHM, Żabka Group, European Council on Foreign Relations, and Clean Air Fund.
