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Global warming an opportunity for Polish agriculture
The growing season will be longer and will increase the effectiveness of crops. This will allow for wider cultivation of plants that have only been grown to the south, such as soybeans and sunflowers.
Background
Global warming will have increasingly serious implications for the global economy, including the agricultural and food production sector. On the one hand, higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere may be beneficial for crop growth. On the other hand, agricultural production in many countries may suffer due to rising temperatures, which will affect the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods or violent storms and hurricanes. How will this affect agriculture in Europe?
Implications
Losses in agriculture, loss in GDP. The EurCom report published in November shows that in a pessimistic future scenario of global warming (where the average global temperature increases by 3 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era), the EU's GDP at the end of this century will decrease by 1.9 per cent annually (EUR 240 bln). Climate change may affect mortality rates and lower the productivity of outdoor labourers, including those in agriculture. It will also increase the number of floods and droughts, which will harm agricultural production, especially in Mediterranean countries. If the temperature rise can be maintained at 2 °C, the negative impact on the economy will be limited to around EUR 79 bln per year.
Barren European south. Global warming may adversely affect the countries of southern Europe. EurCom models show that Spain will be plagued by drought more often than it is today. The lower level of rivers will make the irrigation of arable fields difficult. In Spain, Italy or Greece, underground water resources are also expected to decline. An even drier climate in these countries would result in soil sterilization. In a negative scenario within a few dozen years, this may include an area with an additional area of 150,000 sq km. Changes until 2035 may negatively impact agriculture and lead to a decline in crops such as corn or sunflowers in countries such as Portugal and Italy.
Possibility of larger harvests in Poland. EurCom forecasts show that higher average temperatures will be conducive to extending the growing season in Central Europe, including in Poland. However, temperatures will not be high enough to restrict crop output per hectare as in Southern Europe where extreme temperatures and water scarcity may limit plant growth. Global warming will prolong the growing season of plants and accelerate work in the field during springtime. According to forecasts to 2035, this may positively affect the harvest of corn, wheat and sugar beets. The profitability of sowing crops that require warmer weather in Poland such as sunflowers or soy will also increase. On the other hand, higher temperatures may adversely affect the cultivation of traditional plants like potatoes. In addition, the warmer climate may attract new crop-destroying pests to Poland.
Changes in international trade. Forecasts from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate that in some regions of the world like Africa, India or Southeast Asia, climate change trends up to 2050 will negatively affect food production, which may also exacerbate problems related to global hunger. Richer countries where farmers enjoy easy access to modern technology such as Canada, the USA or those in Europe, may be able to increase agricultural production and their net exports of food to other countries. Global climate change also presents a chance for Poland to access new markets, especially for the food products which already dominate the Polish export sector. According to MinAg data, in 2017 food exports from Poland reached PLN 27.3 bln.
The bottom line
Farmers who contribute to greenhouse gas emissions themselves through raising livestock and using artificial fertilizers will have to face major climate change challenges over the next several decades. The use of modern technologies to increase the efficiency of agricultural production may partially offset potential problems. The forecasts based on EurCom models indicate that the Polish food sector may be relatively mildly affected by climate change, at least for the next 20 years. For Polish companies, this is an opportunity to increase agricultural production and gain entry in new export markets.