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What does the Katowice package mean
COP24 has fulfilled its task, but the package approved by the states has many legal loopholes that future summits will need to fill in.
Background
On December 15m after two weeks of negotiations, 196 UN countries approved the "Katowice package". It is a set of rules implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, whose aim is to keep the increase in the global temperature at 2°C, and id possible at 1.5°C. The 133-page document introduces common standards for all nations for tracking their climate policies. We present the key parts of the package that will affect its assessment.
Digest
Climate ambitions will rise starting in 2020 at the earliest. Despite considerable hopes from some ecological organisations, COP24 did not support the increase of the targets included in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) before 2020. This is key because if the current NDC plans are not changed, the temperature will rise by 3–4 °C. From the beginning, the likelihood of these ambitious being raised was close to zero. Several countries (such as France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Vietnam Qatar and Mexico) have announced they would take such a step. It Katowice, it was agreed that the topic of increased ambitions requires discussions outside COP and a separate discussion of world leaders. This is to take place in September 2019 at the climate summit of the UN Secretary-General in New York.
A soft approach to the IPCC report. One of the most controversial topics at the Katowice negotiations was to describe the attitude of the countries to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The publication states that global warming can be stopped, but at the cost of zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. A complete adoption of the report by COP24 would provide a political permission to increase the reduction of emissions. For this reason, the US, Russia, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia only wanted to "take note" of the publication, while other countries wanted a full "welcome". In the end, the Katowice package included a very soft statement, "calling" on all parties to use the report's results.
There are no rules for international emission trading. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement assumes the creation by 2020 of an international market to limit emissions. This type of mechanisms already worked at part of the Kyoto Protocol, allowing developed countries to reduce emissions in developing countries. But this was a very ineffective mechanism. For this reason, in Paris it was agreed that reductions cannot be double counted (once in the country that made the reductions and sold units, and the second in the country buying them). Towards the end of COP24, Brazil objected to such a solution. It wanted to keep the possibility of selling the accumulated credits for reductions achieved before the Paris Agreement. Its position was so set that it threatened the Katowice decision. Ultimately, the entire part related to Article 6 was excluded from the package. This is the largest legal loophole of the new rulebook. The decision on the matter will only be made at COP25 in Chile.
No new financial commitments in the Katowice package. The financing of climate activities by the developed countries will increase and is to be more predictable for the developing ones. Some countries have already announced that they will increase the funds for combatting climate change. Germany and Norway have doubled their contribution to the Green Climate Fund (it already has USD 10.3 billion). Contributions to the Adaptation Fund from other countries have also increased. On the other hand, the poorest countries did not yet receive additional money to cover the losses caused by climate change. The Katowice package only "strongly urges" richer nations to provide USD 100 billion in support for the developing countries until 2020. By 2025, a new target in this area is to be set.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Katowice package did not stop the global temperature rise, but it is the first step towards creating a global system that may allow it to happen. Despite the unfavourable political situation due the to the rising climate scepticism in the US and Brazil and difficult internal situations in France and Germany, along with significant shortcomings of the document itself, the adaptation of the Katowice package is a success of the presidency and secretariat of the climate convention. Nevertheless, it is difficult to say what the effects of the decisions will be. A lot will depend on the means of implementing the package by individual countries. COP25 in Chile will deal with the adoption of the parts of the Paris Accord (such as Article 6) not included in the Katowice rulebook.