On the threshold of European elections - what kind of Europe will we choose?

Preview

Is the EU prepared for an era of uncertainty? On May 26, Europeans will choose a new European Parliament that will decide on the distribution of power and political representation in other EU institutions. The European Council will then elect the President of the Commission, the President of the European Council and the head of the European Central Bank. The decision-makers will, along with an army of EU officials and national leaders, shape post-Brexit Europe. The new system may lack clear leadership in the twilight of Angela Merkel's era, and political scenes in the member states will become increasingly unpredictable.

How does Poland see the EU? The Minister for European Affairs, Konrad Szymański will present his own diagnosis of the state of the EU on the threshold of the European elections. He will argue that Poland is not a threat to the community, that the dispute over the rule of law is a red herring, and that Brussels has more serious problems than Polish judicial reform. He will also talk about the constructive role he thinks Poland plays in shaping European policies. He may also mention the ideas PiS has to repair the European community and what the role of Poland ought to be in the new balance of power in Europe.

Who will deal out the cards? We will speculate on which political grouping will win the election and whether its candidate will become the head of EurCom. We will look at the rivalry between the weakening socialists and the strengthening Greens. We will try to answer the question whether the liberals, supported by Emmanuel Macron, will play a significant role in Brussels. Finally, we will reflect on which forces will bring euro-sceptics into EurParl and whether they should be included in sharing roles. The English will be absent from the negotiating table and the tone of the discussion will be set by the Franco-German duo, regardless of the results for En Marche and the outcome of the Berlin succession. At the same time, the importance of the Netherlands (the informal leader of the northern states) will grow, especially in the face of the limited coalition potential of the southern and eastern countries.

A Europe of how many speeds? The new Commission continue to work on the multi-annual financial framework and, apart from the traditional discussions on the size of national contributions or financing agricultural policy, the subject of a euro budget will continue to be discussed. We will speculate on whether the talks will again be dominated by the French and the Germans and how the Hanseatic League and the northern states, which are opposed to the idea of a separate budget, will react. We will also discuss the anxiety outside the eurozone. In Poland, the eurozone budget is perceived as the last move towards the emergence of a two-speed Europe. And, according to some experts, it was easier to join the EU in 2004 than it would be to get to its decision-making nucleus if it were walled off as Castle Euro.

How much a market, how many values? Ten years ago, the most important role in European politics was played by Christian Democrat, socialist and liberal groups. This meant that a broad consensus in thinking about the future of Europe could be achieved and the details discussed. At present, politicians of all sorts preside in the capitals of Europe, which begs the question: what will hold the EU together? One element will be European treaties enforced to some extent by the CJEU, whose role will grow. The second may be the common market, although it is cracking under the influence of national interests. Panellists will also try to answer the question of how changes of European leaders will affect competition in the area of the digital economy, where the EU is losing out to the US or Asia.

Panellists

Jeremy Cliffe, is bureau chief of The Economist, writes the Charlemagne column and knows all the Brussels gossip, and will help us connect important and fundamental topics with inside knowledge of EU institutions. Dara Murphy runs the European-wide EPP campaign and is the Irish minister responsible for the digital market. We will ask him about the balance of power in Brussels and the construction of the community's digital economy. Jose Ignacio Torreblanca specialises in the populists and eurosceptics, and will tell us what risks the upcoming elections pose for EU projects.