Takeaway
The US's two-pronged approach to NATO. During the debate “20 years later – what’s left of the NATO idea” Karen Donfried from the German Marshall Fund of the US said that the presence of up to 50 Republican and Democratic members of Congress during Munich security conference was exceptional. The politicians argued that there is a bipartisan consensus in the US on the need to support Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance, although statements by the White House and Donald Trump officials are filled with reservations about the future of NATO. The members of Congress tried to convince NATO members that in the near future the US would return to close relations with its European allies.
Washington's contradictory signals to Europe. Donfried’s view was confirmed by Anne Applebaum from The Washington Post. She pointed out that on the one hand, the US is investing in closer relations with European NATO members, including Poland, Germany and the Baltic States, demonstrated by growing military presence, extensive joint exercises and increased emphasis on military planning. On the other hand, Trump’s sceptical approach to NATO, international security guarantees and a large US military engagement in Europe lead to uncertainty among European capitals. According to Applebaum, the US president represents isolationist ideas of the 1930s.
US international policy is impossible to read for Russia. Henry Foy, head of The Financial Times office in Moscow, pointed out that Russia is watching closely to see what the weakening of transatlantic relations will bring. At the same time, Moscow seems not to be drawing strings in the growing Western crisis and is finding it increasingly difficult to read the US international policy. Foy stressed that the Kremlin is concerned about the growing US military engagement in Europe. If the Americans increase the number of troops in Poland, Russia may respond with the deployment of additional military forces in Belarus. Apart from that, the Kremlin is paying more and more attention to the actions of China, whose economic and military potential is growing.
Little chance for Fort Trump. Donfried pointed out that Warsaw is seeking additional security guarantees from the US and would like to host a permanent US military base because NATO cohesion is currently being questioned. She believes, however, that flexibility and mobility of US military operations remain key. The rotational presence of US forces is therefore sufficient to guarantee the security of Warsaw. Donfried is convinced that this form of involvement is a sufficient signal for Russia that in the event of a conflict the US will defend Poland, Romania and other countries in the region.
Russia unfazed by the idea of creating a European army. According to Foy, the Kremlin does not take seriously the idea of creating the EU armed forces, because it does not involve any real industrial capabilities or investment in new defence technologies. For Moscow, NATO still remains the main opponent, as it is effectively promoting the interests of the US defence industry. Foy stressed that an effective security policy is based on joint purchases of military equipment, and the EU is not implementing such a scenario. Applebaum, on the other hand, pointed out that Russia is pursuing an aggressive policy towards NATO countries – it supports anti-government movements, manipulates the online debate taking advantage of trolls and bots, and is responsible for cyberattacks on infrastructureę.
Washington’s actions lead to a Russian-Chinese rapprochement. According to Donfried, the US and Europe should work closer to conduct policies towards China and Russia, because a common approach will bring better results. Washington and EU capitals have joint economic interests in China and the need to protect intellectual property. Trump, however, does not care about good relations with Europe, which benefits China and Russia. Foy pointed out that Beijing and Moscow are cooperating more closely in the area of energy and defence. In 2020, the construction of the Power of Siberia will be completed, and the pipeline will pump 38 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to China, and soldiers from both countries participate in joint war games and simulations. Foy thinks that if Europe pushes Russia east, Moscow will continue to tighten its cooperation with Beijing. 
