Preview
Will Western societies change their attitudes and behaviour? Beth Gardiner writes in her book about the "invisibility" of a climate catastrophe. People hear about the end of the world, but are not experience the symptoms of an impending crisis. Since 2017, the percentage of Europeans who think climate change is a serious problem has been growing. In 2019, it reached 93 per cent. However, this does not always translate to action. Moreover, the activities undertaken by Europeans do not have a significant impact – although 75 per cent of Europeans declare that they sort waste, only 37 per cent are willing to give up cars for public transport, while a mere 12 per cent take into account the carbon footprint when deciding on holidays. Most citizens expect action primarily from governments and business representatives. We will consider whether the growing awareness and sense of threat will translate to changes in behaviour, including that of consumers. Will people stop flying, driving cars or eating meat?
What can politicians offer voters that get the gravity of the situation? The Greens from marginal protest parties have turned into serious players in the political arena of many countries. In Austria, they entered the government as a coalition partner of Conservatives led by Sebastian Kurz, while in Germany, they have been the second party in polls for months and a strong candidate for a partner for CDU/CSU. Mainstream parties have been adapting to the growing popularity of the Greens and incorporate some of their proposals. Additionally, the issue of climate change is no longer limited to the domain of left-wing parties. Liberals and conservatives are increasingly putting it on banners, seeking answers to the challenges of our times in line with their worldview and economic doctrine. In turn, some extreme left-wing (but also right-wing) groupings are against tightening the climate policy, warning against job losses and rising energy prices, which will be felt by the poorest voters. Will attitudes to climate change in the new decade become the most important axis of political debate and replace worldview disputes?
Is energy transformation possible? The financial burden of the measures that need to be taken to limit global warming will be borne mainly by the energy and manufacturing sectors. To keep global temperature rise at a level of 1.5 degrees Celsius, 70-85 per cent of the world's energy in 2050 must come from RES, while only 3-11 per cent from gas and 0-2 per cent should come from coal (IPCC report). Fossil fuels must be replaced by green energy, but probably also by nuclear energy, without which it will be impossible to achieve climate goals set. Moreover, heavy industry will have to gradually switch to hydrogen. The key to transformation in Europe is supposed to be the European Green Deal – the European Commission proposes to completely change the EU's climate policy and economy. An important element of this civilisational project is to be a mechanism for fair transformation that will support fossil fuel-dependent regions, which include Poland. In Europe, funds for the energy revolution will come in part from the EU budget and the European Investment Bank. We will discuss how these funds will be distributed, how they can help to mobilise private funds and how strongly they will be linked to the political will for change among EU member states.
Will there be revolution in face of growing crisis? It is hard to imagine that a global agreement to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be reached soon. It seems that Europe remains a shining example, but even the implementation of the European Green Deal may prove insufficient, especially if it is met with resistance on the part of the manufacturing sector and some EU member states. This, in turn, will inevitably lead to radicalisation and social tensions – due on the one hand to growing public awareness and the increasingly important role played by the climate in political debates and, on the other hand, to the resistance of markets and companies to limiting profits and decoupling economic growth from increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Will we see a repeat of the 1968 revolution when the generation brought up on the Youth Climate Strike and Extinction Rebellion will go to university? In the face of weather disasters, shortages of commodities, especially water and food, and huge migration, does global revolution await us?
PANELLISTS
Beth Gardiner, the author of the book "Choked: Life and Breath in the Age of Air Pollution", will talk about the attitude of Western societies towards climate catastrophe, the potential for change and the growing rebellion. Carolina García Gómez, the CEO of IKEA Polska, will face the difficult question of whether capitalism conflicts with the fight for the climate or, on the contrary, it can help it. Jerzy Buzek, MEP and Prime Minister of the government which carried out thorough reforms in Silesia, will talk about the costs of energy transformation for Poland and Europe and whether a Just Transformation will change the approach of mining regions to climate change. Mikołaj Dowgielewicz, Director General of the European Investment Bank, will face the question of how to fight climate change without reducing the competitiveness of the European economy. 
Monika Helak, Robert Tomaszewski, Paweł Wiejski andAleksandra Wójtowicz contributed to this analysis.
