Risks and Trends

Stability already behind us

Risks and Trends 2020 Preview 2020-01-30
Instability and unpredictability will define the new decade. Until a new balance of power is created in the world, the risk of confrontation and even war between the powers will increase.

Preview

Inflation of crises a fact or merely an impression? In January 2020 alone, a war between the US and Iran came close to erupting, Vladimir Putin intensified accusations that it was the West that was responsible for World War II, the impeachment of the incumbent president began in the US Senate, in Australia forest fires threatened the lives of its inhabitants, and in China, the threat of a global epidemic appeared. These events are the effects of real crises on a smaller or larger scale, but as a result of media reinforcement, we feel that their power of influence is much greater than in reality. Societies and their leaders have the impression that the world is moving faster today and that events following one another like successive frames in a film, leaving no room for analysis and conclusions. In such a world, it is more difficult to make accurate decisions and define strategies, which only increases instability.

Has the order based on rules become obsolete? Soon 75 years will have passed since the creation of the UN; last year, NATO celebrated its 70th anniversary, while the European community is only a decade younger. On the brink of the third decade of the 21st century, there are increasingly more opinions claiming that the system of world order is inadequate and outdated. Such a system does not take into account the power of new world actors (most of all China and India), disregarding problems in Africa, all the while struggling to protect the Earth as the only habitat of mankind and blocks the development of countries which 70 years ago were too small and too weak have their voice heard because the order was established by the hegemonies of that time. And these hegemonies do not seem to be interested in maintaining an order, which does not keep up with technology, changing interests and balance. Most of them are vacillating between the feeling that being passive is no longer possible and fears of change and the void.

Is unpredictability an asset? In the context of loosening multinational responsibilities and interdependencies, some leaders are relying on the tactics of accomplished facts and breaking the rules. Examples include Putin in Crimea, Donbas, English Salisbury and Syria, Erdogan in Syria and Libya, Xi Jinping pushing Americans out of the seas close to China or the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia hacking the phone of the richest man in the world. And above all, the President of the United States, who seems to be implementing the doctrine of unpredictability as a way to preserve and strengthen American leadership, or at least domination. Against this backdrop, regional "villains," undermining the established rule of law in Europe or supporting anti-government fighters in the Middle East are almost losing their importance – "rogue games" have become the norm in the game of the powers. Where are the limits of breaking the rules and will the one who breaks them most ultimately win?

Is the confrontation of the powers inevitable? When a hegemon sees a growing power that it considers a potential threat, it can squash it before it becomes too strong. The supposed inevitability of a similar conflict, or even war, has already been described by the ancients and is known as the so-called Thucydides Trap. Today, this trap is mentioned in the context of China's growing power and the US reaction. Concerns are growing all the more so because the traditional hegemon has an unpredictable leader who has declared and implemented a policy of leaving multilateral agreements, turning away from alliances and skipping the rules. The weakening system of world order makes it impossible to diffuse the growing conflict for whose large scale it was not designed. As a result, formal treaties restricting armaments collapse and unwritten rules, the disregard of which resulted in marginalisation over the past decades, have ceased to apply. The prospect of a great war threatens the world in the 21st century. Will it break out?

Panellists

Prof. Danuta Hübner was Minister for European Affairs when Poland negotiated its accession to the EU, then the first commissioner delegated by Poland (dealing with regional policy), and since 2009 she has been a Member of the European Parliament. Alicia García Herrero is a valued participant in global economic debates and combines academic and financial experience from European and Asian institutions. She is a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, a Professor of Economics and serves on the supervisory boards of several banks. Sudha David-Wilp is the Deputy Director of the office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin, where she has worked for almost a decade. She deals with American-German relations, more broadly American-European relations, as well as internal German politics. Tony Barber, the editor of the European section of Financial Times, began his journalistic work in Reuters agency, in the 80s he was a correspondent in the US, Vienna, Warsaw and Moscow. Today, he mainly writes columns about European politics, the economy and Brexit.

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Marek Świerczyński
Head of Security and International Affairs Desk
Marek Świerczyński
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