Preview
What will the election look like? The presidential campaign in May 2020 will end the almost two-year election cycle in which PiS won the local, European and parliamentary elections. Andrzej Duda clearly remains the favourite of the presidential race. The most important question is whether anything or anyone can prevent him from winning. The campaign can trigger social emotions; public opinion will pay attention to the various candidates' attitude to rule of law and the sharp economic slowdown. Duda requires a high degree of mobilisation of the PiS electorate to win, but will this suffice or should he also seek support from moderate voters? As for the opposition, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska has the greatest chance of winning, but efficient campaigns of other oppositional candidates could bring them closer to the KO politician.
What vision of the presidency will candidates present? The polarisation of the political arena in Poland is very strong. PiS and PO have been winning elections for years, mobilising their supporters against each other. At the same time, throughout various campaigns, presidential candidates have been making promises to represent all Poles, regardless of their views and preferences and that they will unite citizens. Will the promise to rebuild a community in Poland once again become a strong motto prior to the upcoming presidential election? Candidates from the smaller parties (Robert Biedroń, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Krzysztof Bosak) and the unaffiliated Szymon Hołownia will try to break the polarising dispute that favours Duda and Kidawa-Błońska.
What will relations between the president and the government look like? The victory of an oppositional candidate would leave PiS in a difficult situation – the president could use the veto to paralyse the legislative activity of the Sejm and the government, whose role would be reduced to an administrative one. In such a situation, Jarosław Kaczyński could strive to call early elections, although this could be an extremely dangerous game. Riding the wave of winning the presidential election, the opposition could win such parliamentary elections held ahead of time. The defeat of the incumbent president could threaten the alliance of PiS, Porozumienie (Agreement) and Solidarna Polska (Solidarity Poland). At the same time, Duda's victory could mean a qualitative change in the relationship between the Presidential Palace and PiS. Would Duda, who would no longer have to strive for PiS support (because this would be his last term), win more independence?
How will the election affect the political arena? The result of the May presidential vote will define the balance of power within the political arena for years to come – the next elections (parliamentary and local government) are scheduled only for autumn 2023. A Duda loss could lead to a thorough reshuffle. However, even if the president maintains his position, the political scene may change. If Kidawa-Błońska fails to enter the second round – or if Duda's advantage over her proves crushing – this will squash PO, which may lose its role as the most important oppositional party following such a defeat. Any poor (worse than during the Sejm elections) results for PSL and Left Coalition candidates would, in turn, hurt the parties and could cause the break-up of coalitions formed by PSL with Kukiz'15 and the left-wing parties.
Panellists
Maciej Gdula is a sociologist and the author of the famous Dobra zmiana w Miastku report ("A Good Change in Miastko Town"). He entered politics in 2019 – he tried to win a seat in the European Parliament running from Wiosna’s list, but eventually made his Sejm debut in the autumn as a Left Coalition MP. Rafał Matyja is a political scientist who first hypothesised the construction of the fourth Republic of Poland (IV RP), and has more recently become involved as an expert in the staff of Szymon Hołownia. Joanna Mucha has been a member of PO since 2007; she was also MinSpor in Donald Tusk's government. Andrzej Zybertowicz is a sociologist, as well as a former advisor to Jarosław Kaczyński for security matters. As of 2015, he has been advising Andrzej Duda socially and often represents the president in the media.
