Risks and Trends

The US-China dispute will dominate global politics

Takeaway 2020-02-04
The participants of the global panel at this year's Risks and Trends conference wondered how the EU, US and China will be able to face the crisis of multilateralism.

Takeaway

Brexit did not disturb the EU's unity. Marek Świerczyński, the moderator of the "Getting Used to Instability" panel, opened up the discussion by posing a question about the instability that could result from the UK leaving the EU. MEP and former EU Commissioner Danuta Hübner pointed out that, despite the predictions of some eurosceptics, no other European country wants to follow in Britain's footsteps. However, Brexit remains a source of uncertainty and is unlikely to stoping being a talking point in the coming years. To counterbalance this, it will be necessary to build close ties with London after Brexit. For Financial Times columnist Tony Barber, this is another example of the global order being undermined by nationalism. It poses a threat to the EU which needs a multilateral order to maintain stability and prosper.

China unprepared for instability. Alicia Garcia Herrero, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank based in Brussels, talked about China's surprise at the UK's decision to leave the EU – taking such risk voluntarily is unthinkable in Chinese political culture. Aiming for stability at all cost could, however, backfire on Beijing, as it reduces a system's preparedness for chance events, as demonstrated by the recent coronavirus epidemic. According to Garcia Herrero, China – and Asia more broadly – has been struggling lately with a number of issues, ranging from the trade war with the US and problems with the Belt and Road Initiative to protests in Hong Kong.

US refuses to end confrontation with China. According to Deputy Head of the German Marshall Fund office in Berlin Sudha David-Wilp, there is a bipartisan consensus in the US that China is America's systemic rival. For Barber, the belief that China does not play by the rules is one of the main reasons why the US has been attacking multilateralism. The position is opposed by the EU, which on the one hand needs America's support in areas of defence and security, and does not want to risk its economic interests with China on the other hand. Garcia Herrero pointed out that despite Donald Trump's negative attitude to China, the Chinese are full of admiration for the US president. Treating Beijing as America's main adversary is, in their view, logical – they regard themselves as the US' equals.

Strong EU beneficial to US. The participants of the panel agreed on this but presented different visions of a "strong EU." David-Wilp believes that Europe lacks leadership which would enable the bloc to rebuild its position after Brexit. Garcia Herrero, on the other hand, argued that strong leadership is not necessarily good for citizens, as evidenced by authoritarian states. The EU's strong points are its institutions as well as policies on the protection of privacy and the environment. Barber commented that the EU's strategy for its neighbourhood policy is ineffective, especially compared to that of Russia or Turkey. The two countries are not afraid to exploit instability for their purposes, which enables them to expand their influence in the Balkans, for instance.

Europe is divided on Russia. Barber implied that President Vladimir Putin's image in individual EU states is largely determined by geography. Portugal is more interested in improving relations with Moscow than Estonia, for whom Russia poses a direct threat. According to David-Wilp, there is cross-party consensus in the US that Russia will try to influence the outcome of the elections but opinions are divided as to what is the best strategy to adopt to Putin. Garcia Herrero said that Russia's image is quite different in Asia - for instance, China does not regard Russia as a threat due to its economic advantage and Moscow's economic dependence on Beijing. For Breugel's representative, this could be an argument in favour of the French president Emmanuel Macron's proposal to cooperate with Russia against China.

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Paweł Wiejski
fmr. European Affairs Analyst
Paweł Wiejski
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