Presidential candidates brace themselves for a difficult campaign

Takeaway

A long and unpredictable campaign. "During the last presidential campaign, Bronisław Komorowski thought that it was a done deal. This backfired. Today, Andrzej Duda is in a similar position," said Andrzej Gdula in response to a question about the presidential campaign. In his view, it will be very unpredictable as presidential elections are "decided by personalities," so voters easily change their preferences. Rafał Matyja, who advises Szymon Hołownia, said that for all practical purposes, the campaign has already started; it will be longer than the one five years ago. According to Joanna Mucha, the reduced flow of voters will mark an important difference between 2015 and 2020." It will be, first and foremost, a battle for mobilisation," she said. Presidential advisor Andrzej Zybertowicz assured that Duda will win the elections "because he will be working hard until the very last day."

Disagreement over consensus. When asked about the myth of the "President of all the Poles," Zybertowicz replied that – understood literally – it is just a metaphor, but that in his view, Duda does indeed act for the good of all Polish citizens – in accordance with his value system and as part of the camp lobbying for "good change." Hołownia's candidacy assumes that Poles do not want a president from their tribe, but one that is "unpredictable in the sense that he will not behave in accordance with his party's expectations." Such a president is necessary not only to glue the community back together," said Matyja. According to Mucha, Poles want a "president for all citizens," but understand that the likelihood of this happening is small. She pointed out, however, that a presidency which shows respect for the "other tribe" is possible. Gdula criticised the two largest parties for claiming that they presenting a vision of peace while attacking a part of Polish society, claiming that PiS wants to get rid of "the Communists, the various castes and LGBT," while PO plans to "remove everyone connected with PiS from power," which would "ensure peace following the war."

There will be no early election. Neither Zybertowicz, nor Mucha or Gdula believe in the parliamentary term being cut short in the event of a victory for an opposition candidate. According to the president's advisor, PiS will persevere as it is "rooted in Polish identity" and "has room to retreat." The PO MP said that the ruling party will try to postpone losing power because PiS is "incredibly determined to conceal its scandals." According to Gdula, Duda's defeat would lead to conflicts over the spoils in the ruling camp. People dependent on the government would fight against cutting the term short so as not to lose their jobs. Talking about the cooperation between an opposition president and the PiS government, the Left Coalition MP said that the logic of "a tribal war" should not be allowed to take hold as it would make it impossible to face the real challenges, such as climate change or improving the quality of public services. Replying to Zybertowicz's statement, Matyja said that, "The party, by virtue of its name, is part of the nation, not its emanation." He added that PiS cannot deny other political parties being "rooted in Polish identity," as this "violates the logic of the Polish Republic."

Political scene prepares for change. According to Zybertowicz, regardless of the election result, the Polish political scene will soon face a generational change which could mean a "rationalisation of the political conflict." Matyja pointed out that the party system changes after every presidential election. In his view, a change of the key topics of political debate is possible. "For me, what is annoying about the PiS-PO conflict is not that the same two parties are doing the talking, but that they are talking about the wrong things. A very large proportion of this is to do with symbolic conflicts which trigger a lot of emotions but do not translate into good, accountable governance," argued Hołownia's advisor. Mucha believes that the political scene will not change significantly after the elections. The PO MP pointed out the changes in her party, though, saying that it "will undergo reform and gain support." In Gdula's opinion, Kidawa-Błońska's defeat would mean considerable problems for PO.

Conflicts over Polish identity. The tension over Zybertowicz's statement about "being rooted in Polish identity" led panellists to discuss the foundations of such an identity and various approaches to the nation. Duda's advisor talked about a "Polish identity minimum" which entails accepting the significance of Christianity to Poland and "not distorting tradition." Mucha also declared her attachment to Christian roots but pointed out that, like Matyja, her view of Polish identity has more to do with being a citizen than with being part of a nation. She also accused PiS of "pushing us [Poles] towards a perception of the Polish identity which is based on creating sovereignty single-handedly," which is a "betrayal of the raison d'etat." Gdula opposed the concept of Christianity being viewed as the foundation of the Polish identity, stressing instead the importance of openness and multiculturalism. When answering questions from the audience, panellists did not point to a single key campaign issue, but rather emphasised the role of conflicts over Poland's place in Europe, climate issues and approaches to public services and social programmes.