Poland 2015-2019

What kind of Eastern policy has PiS conducted

Polska 2015-2019 2019-08-23
PiS rule saw the deterioration of relations with Ukraine and the role of the Eastern Partnership decreasing. On the plus side, Poland has become less reliant on energy from Russia.

Foreign visits to Eastern Partnership countries and Russia under the various PiS governments
Foreign visits to Eastern Partnership countries and Russia under the various PiS governments
Poland 2015-2019

Eastern Partnership (EP) shelved. It has been ten years since Poland and Sweden inaugurated the programme integrating six eastern states with the EU. The initiative's last big success – the EU's signing of the association agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova – was however in 2014, before PiS came to power. Since then, interest in the EP has been slowly waning in Europe. Many EU states are opposed to expansion; this, in turn, demotivates the eastern partners who thought that participation in the Eastern Partnership would be the first step on the way to EU membership. The Polish government has failed to work out a new idea for cooperation which could breathe new life into the initiative. Although MinFor Jacek Czaputowicz proposed a reform of the EP this year, making increased regional cooperation between the Partnership's members its main goal, the idea is unlikely to succeed due to the ongoing conflicts between the various states.

Relations with Ukraine worse than before. This was partly due to the tightening of rhetoric connected with historic policy. On the Polish side, the problem was the amendment to the IPN law at the beginning of 2018 and the Sejm resolution in 2016 on the victims of the Volhynia massacre. On the Ukrainian side, it was the glorification of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). Another factor was the gradually diminishing significance of Poland in relations between Kyiv and the West – a process which began before PiS came to power. An example was Warsaw not being included in the Normandy format peace talks (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France). Neither the president's, nor both the MinFor's visits to Ukraine (there were nine in total) were able to stop the deterioration of relations. Volodymyr Zelensyy's taking office is unlikely to change this trend; while the previous Ukrainian president's first trip was to Warsaw, Zelenskyy (as President-elect) chose Brussels.

Relations with Russia completely frozen. The PiS government decided not to reinstate high-level diplomatic relations with Russia, which had been suspended following the illegal annexation of Crimea. The lack of contacts between the Polish and Russian leaders meant that the ruling party failed to fulfil one of its key promises from 2015: to get the wreck of the Tu-154M jet back from the Russians (related to the Smolensk crash). In the international arena, Warsaw consistently lobbied in favour of maintaining or tightening sanctions against Moscow until May this year, when Polish MinFor Jacek Czaputowicz voted for the reinstatement of the Russian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Countries which voted against included Ukraine and Lithuania. The decision caused controversies within the ruling party – PiS MPs in PACE voted against reinstating Russia and left the meeting when the motion eventually carried.

Lower energy dependence on Moscow. In May 2016, the government announced that Poland would not be extending the Yamal contract for gas deliveries by Gazprom, which runs out in 2022. In order to ensure the required amount of gas, Gaz-System has begun preparations for the construction of Baltic Pipe and PGNiG singed three contracts for over 20 years for the import of LNG from the US and Qatar. At the same time, the gas company reduced gas deliveries from Russia from 10.2 billion cubic metres in 2016 to 9 billion cubic metres in 2018. A similar trend can be seen in the import of crude oil – according to NBP data, the share of Russian oil in total Polish imports was 67 per cent in 2018, 10 per cent less than in the previous year. In the current term, however, PiS has been struggling with the rising imports of Russian coal. According to Eurostat, in Q1 2019 alone Poland imported 3.15 million tonnes, or about 60 per cent of the entire 2016 amount.

Promotion of democracy - inconsistent. Support for pro-democratic opposition and NGOs in the East has traditionally been one of the pillars of Poland's eastern policy. Not all countries have been offered assistance from the PiS government, though. While in Ukraine the initiatives promoting human rights and democracy continued (the Ukrainian director Oleh Sentsov who was imprisoned by Russia received the Pro Dignitate Humana award), in Belarus it weakened visibly. In 2016, MinFor cut funding for Belsat TV (funding was subsequently reinstated in 2018), and at the beginning of 2019 the International Solidarity Foundation (controlled by the state Treasury) considerably reduced funds for the Karta 97 website linked with the radical opposition.

the bottom line

The East has not been a priority for the party currently in power - regional initiatives within the EU, especially the Three Seas Initiative, were much more important in this term. PiS has failed to strengthen Poland's position as an intermediary between the East and West mainly due to its worsening relations with Brussels (see: controversial changes to the judiciary), as well as the lack of suitable personnel. In the coming years, the biggest challenge for Poland's eastern policy (regardless of who wins the approaching election) will be the starting détente between the West and Russia.

*Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia

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Paweł Wiejski
fmr. European Affairs Analyst
Paweł Wiejski
PI Alert
10:00
28.06.2024

EU summit: Member States launch discussion on financing joint defence initiatives

State of play

Leaders approved appointments to top posts. At the EU summit that ended on Thursday night, they nominated Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as head of EurCom, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa as head of EurCou and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as head of EU diplomacy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni abstained from voting for von der Leyen and voted against Costa and Kallas. This means that Meloni is preparing for tough negotiations and may demand a high political price in return for his party's support for von der Leyen in her approval in the EurParl. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán voted against von der Leyen and abstained on Kallas.

They adopted the Union's strategic agenda for 2024-2029. Over the next five years, the Union's goals include a successful digital and green transformation by "pragmatically" pursuing the path to climate neutrality by 2050. Another objective is to strengthen the EU's security and defence capabilities.

Von der Leyen spoke of EUR 500 billion for defence over a decade. This was the EurCom estimate of needed EU investment presented by its head at the EurCou meeting. Poland and France were among the countries that expected the EurCom to present possible options for financing defence investments before the summit, such as EU financing of common expenditure from a common borrowing. This idea was strongly opposed by Germany and the Netherlands, among others. In the end, von der Leyen decided to postpone the debate until after the constitution of the new EurCom, i.e. in the autumn. And the summit - after von der Leyen's oral presentation - only launched a preliminary debate on possible joint financing of defence projects.

Poland has submitted two defence projects. These might be co-financed by EU funds. On the eve of the summit, Poland and Greece presented in writing a detailed concept for an air defence system for the Union (Shield and Spear), which Prime Ministers Donald Tusk and Kyriakos Mitostakis had put forward - in a more general form - in May. In addition, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia presented the idea of jointly strengthening the defence infrastructure along the EU's borders with Russia and Belarus. Poland is pushing for the EU to go significantly beyond its current plans to support the defence industry with EU funds and agree to spend money on defence projects similar to the two proposals. But EU states are far from a consensus on the issue.

Zelensky signed a security agreement with the Union. The document, signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels, commits all member states and the EU as a whole to "help Ukraine defend itself, resist efforts to destabilise it and deter future acts of aggression". The document recalls the EUR 5 billion the EU intends to allocate for military aid and training in 2024 (in addition to bilateral aid from EU countries to Kyiv). It says that "further comparable annual increases could be envisaged until 2027, based on Ukrainian needs" i.e. it could amount to up to EUR 20 billion. Ukraine's agreement with the EU comes on top of the bilateral security "guarantees" Ukraine has already signed with a dozen countries (including the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy). As Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed in Brussels, talks are also underway between Ukraine and Poland on the text of mutual commitments on security issues.

PI Alert
21:00
09.06.2024

KO wins elections to the European Parliament

KO received 38.2 per cent of the vote and PiS 33.9 per cent, according to an exit poll by IPSOS. Konfederacja came in third with 11.9 per cent, followed by Trzecia Droga with 8.2 per cent, Lewica with 6.6 per cent, Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy with 0.8 per cent and Polexit with 0.3 per cent. According to the exit poll, KO gained 21 seats, PiS 19, Konfederacja 6, Trzecia Droga 4 and Lewica gained 3. The turnout was 39.7 per cent.

According to the European Parliament's first projection, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), which includes, among others, PO and PSL, will remain the largest force with 181 MEPs in the 720-seat Parliament. The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), whose members include the Polish Lewica, should have 135 seats, whereas the liberal Renew Europe club (including Polska 2050) will have 82 seats. This gives a total of 398 seats to the coalition of these three centrist factions (EPP, S&D and Renew Europe) on which the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen has relied on so far. The Green faction wins 53 seats according to the same projection, the European Conservatives and Reformists faction (including PiS) 71 seats and the radical right-wing Identity and Democracy 62 seats.

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